Elections in Eastern federal states show massive dissatisfaction with national government
The question was not whether the September 1 state elections Saxony and Thuringia (two of the so-called “new federal states” which formed part of the former GDR) would weaken the widely hated ‘traffic light’ national government or further change the party landscape. The question was how strong would be the political earthquake emanating from these elections and whether the ‘traffic light’ federal government would be toppled as a result. The answer to this second question cannot yet be given conclusively – also because despite the massive losses, the worst scenarios for the social democrats (SPD) and Greens did not materialise. However, there can be no talk of stability or a breather for the traditional parties. The elections are an expression of qualitative political changes and the decline of capitalist democracy, which was introduced over 30 years ago in the Eastern states, and its established parties. What are the causes, what are the dangers for working people and what lessons must the left and trade unionists learn?
“A hated and feuding national government”, “a German economy between stagnation and recession”, “war between Russia and Ukraine and in Gaza”, “a racially charged migration debate and the attack in Solingen”, “social and public infrastructure that has been cut to the bone, is non-existent and/or overburdened”, “the East being further left behind and disadvantaged after more than 30 years of reunification’ and, of course, “the feeling that this world has been coming apart at the seams for years” – these are a few bullet points that need to be used to describe the background to these elections in order to understand them.
For weeks, if not months, the bourgeois media and parties have been dreading these elections. Expectations of the performance of the ‘traffic light’ (Ampel) parties (as the national government consists of ‘red’ Social Democrats, ‘yellow’ Liberals and Greens) could not have been lower. And of course these elections are a low blow for the SPD, Greens and FDP. But no one was surprised and some worst-case scenarios failed to materialise. Contrary to some polls, the SPD did make it into both state parliaments and the Greens into one. Among other things, this lead to grotesque television images, which, after the initial applause from the SPD election party, fades in SPD-General Secretary Kevin Kühnert, who says that this is not an evening to cheer and that there will be no one in the SPD to cheer either…
These are once again the worst results in history for the SPD. The Greens only just made it into the Saxon parliament. In absolute terms, both parties have once again lost many tens of thousands of votes. The FDP has been completely knocked out. In Thuringia, the BSW, which was only founded eight months ago, had on its own more votes than the federal government parties’ total.
Turning point
These elections are a turning point. The change in the party landscape and the historic decline of all established, bourgeois parties is continuing. This includes the conservative CDU, which claims to be the last ‘peoples’ party’ and in Saxony only finished ahead of the AfD the skin of its teeth, but is hardly benefiting from the dissatisfaction with the national government. Opinion polls show that the joint support for itself and its CSU Bavarian sister party is far below their historic levels of over 40% and once over 50%. As potentially the largest force, the CDU is likely in these elections to have benefited in particular from anti-AfD votes – but there is no enthusiasm for its programme. CDU party leader Friedrich Merz’s stated goal of ‘halving the AfD’ (by moving closer to their political positions and promoting division and racist agitation) has been completely shattered.
The increased voter turnout of around 74 per cent is not an expression of a ‘celebration of democracy’, as the outgoing Left Party Prime Minister of Thuringia, Bodo Ramelow, put it. Rather it is an expression of polarisation, fears and, above all, dissatisfaction with social and political conditions among the majority of the population. Most former non-voters voted for the AfD, BSW and CDU for different reasons. Nevertheless, the increased voter turnout should not obscure the fact that non-voters again make up the largest ‘party’ in both countries and therefore did not take up the existing protest offers from the AfD and BSW.
The fall of the left party, Die Linke
The decline of the Left Party in its former home states is continuing apace: this is not a surprise, but it is nevertheless severe. The German electoral system is based on each voter having two votes: a first local constituency vote for a candidate and a second vote for a party’s list of candidates which defines the party’s share of seats in parliament. In Saxony, the Left Party halved its second votes, slipped well below the 5 per cent hurdle to enter parliament and is only in the state parliament because of two first-vote-based mandates in Leipzig – an exception made in regional electoral law in Saxony. In Thuringia, the second votes were more than halved showing that the party has lost its former strength. After the last state election in 2019, Bodo Ramelow was still being cheered as the state’s Prime Minister and quite a few in the party were pinning their hopes on the CDU-backed Left Party-SPD-Green minority government keeping the AfD down. But the result is that the policies of the Left Party’s leaders managed to bring thir own party down. The Thuringian state government was mainly noticeable by not being noticeable at all. As expected, it has fundamentally pursued exactly the same pro-capitalist policies and has in no way become a point of reference for class struggle or a policy change in the interests of wage earners. Unfortunately, the opposite was often the case.
One example illustrates the problems very clearly: in Schleiz, Thuringia, a small town with less than 9,000 people he local, once privatised Sternbach hospital is to be closed. Thuringia’s Health Minister Heike Werner from the Left Party said in a press release that she was “personally concerned”. However, she ultimately explains that “we have to recognise” that no new provider has been found. The deputy district chairman of the Left Party in the Saale-Orla district, Ralf Kalich, also accepts the closure without resistance in a press release. Meanwhile, the AfD organised a rally against the closure which was attended by over 800 people. Who can be surprised that the Left Party is losing support and the AfD can falsely present itself as an alternative for “ordinary people”.
On the contrary, it is difficult to imagine a more ‘statesmanlike’ person than Bodo Ramelow. He has also consistently spoken out in favour of arms deliveries to Ukraine, contrary to the Left Party’s programme. The Left Party is now to a large extent an establishment party in the East, or is perceived as such. So many former Left Party voters are looking for salvation with the BSW or switching to the CDU – even if that doesn’t make much difference, it might prevent the AfD from becoming the strongest force was the thinking of many…
This is because the decline of the Left Party and the established parties contrasts with the strengthened AfD and the rapid rise of former Left Party MP Sahra Wagenknecht’s new ‘left-wing conservative’ ‘Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht’ (BSW). The qualitative changes taking place in the party landscape should not be underestimated.
The AfD’s next success
For the first time since fascism, a far-right party, the AfD, has become the strongest party in a state election in Thuringia. In Saxony, it has become the second strongest party, just behind the CDU. The party also won several hundred thousand more votes in absolute terms, including from many non-voters. This is also a result of the racially charged migration debate following the recent attack in Solingen and an expression of the fact that the issues of ‘migration’ and ‘internal security’ played a major role in the elections. After the knife attack, the SPD, FDP and Greens, with the support of the CDU, adopted or launched measures at record speed that could have been included in any AfD programme: Larger police powers, faster deportations, benefit cuts for refugees. None of this will bring more security. But many are likely to have concluded that they must now support those who have been calling for this from the outset.
Consolidation of AfD support
The AfD is no longer just voted for as a ‘protest party’. The proportion of those who stated in the post-election survey that they voted for the party ‘out of conviction’ has risen to 52 and 50 per cent in Thuringia and Saxony respectively. In a number of policy areas, the party is now also assigned the most competences by voter, in Thuringia for example in ‘asylum policy’, ‘social justice’, ‘crime’, ‘East German interests’, ‘Ukraine/Russia’. For many, the high proportion of young people who voted for the AfD is particularly alarming. Of course, this is still mainly due to the poor alternatives and the failure of the Left (for example what happened in Schleiz), but it is a warning signal for the left in general and trade unionists because it is an expression of the consolidation of prejudices, racism and false ideas. This makes the task of ‘winning back’ some of these people more difficult. But the task itself remains and is not becoming impossible. In fact, it is becoming more urgent.
The AfD feeds on something that capitalism produces every day: Fear. Fear of crime, violence, ‘falling behind’ and ‘being left behind’, poverty, repression, lack of healthcare, housing, skilled labour or schools… all of this has social causes in the profit system and the power of a small capitalist elite for whom politics is made. The AfD makes migrants or minorities the scapegoats. In Thuringia – despite the national outcry and protests earlier this year when the news broke of a secret meeting of right-wingers, including AfD members, that discussed ‘remigration’, i.e. the mass deportation of those with non-German heritage – the far right regional AfD had an election poster of a plane taking with the slogan “Summer, sun and remigration”.
Instead of attacking the real perpetrators and the capitalist system, the AfDit divides working people. It is not a party for workers, but by and for capitalists, aristocrats, professors and tradespeople. But it is elected by workers, even if it does not pursue policies in their interests. No wonder that, according to a YouGov survey, 42 per cent of AfD voters in Saxony, Thuringia and Brandenburg, for example, are against freezing the minimum wage, which the AfD is calling for. The antidote to the AfD must be to point out these contradictions, expose the AfD and lead the fight against racist division with a programme against capitalism. This is only possible against and not with the established bourgeois parties. The common struggle, regardless of nationality and origin, against social grievances and for improvements is crucial in order to push back prejudices and racism and effectively undermine AfD support.
BSW
Many will be pinning their hopes on the BSW. Eight months after its foundation, the BSW is the first party to gain double-digit shares of the vote in two state parliaments and has the opportunity to enter governments. This is not entirely surprising, but it is nevertheless historic. But you have to take a closer look at this success. The BSW has won above all from the Left Party: In Thuringia, over 80,000 votes came from the Left, while only 11,000 came from the AfD and only 27,000 from former non-voters. In Saxony, the ratio is slightly different but comparable. Firstly, this shows that the BSW is benefiting from the disappointment with the Left Party, but is hardly winning any voters from the AfD and is not mobilising as many former non-voters as one might have expected. In Saxony, 16 per cent and in Thuringia 14 per cent of their voters did not vote in 2019.
Sol has pointed out elsewhere that the BSW is ultimately not an alternative for workers because it does not question capitalism, does not focus on class struggle and self-organisation of workers and also contributes to exacerbating the division of the working class through anti-immigration positions. In recent weeks, the BSW has focussed on three issues in particular: 1. against war and arms exports. 2. more deportations. 3. more ‘social policy’, especially investment in education and health. Sahra Wagenknecht had made it a condition for government participation after the elections that such state governments would have to position themselves against further arms aid to Ukraine and against the deployment of US long-range missiles. After the attack in Solingen, she sang the same tune as AfD, CDU and Ampel politicians and called for more deportations.
The elections show that Wagenknecht’s in any case politically incorrect calculation of weakening the AfD by adopting AfD rhetoric and restricting asylum rights did not work out. For BSW voters, the issue of ‘immigration’ was far less important compared to the average voter; the war issue was much more important. For AfD voters it was the other way around. So it is still true that the “original” is usually preferred to the “copy”.
BSW ready for coalitions
But there is another illusion that Wagenknecht is selling: namely that in an alliance with the CDU or SPD, a policy change for working people would be possible in principle. In this respect, she is no different from the leadership of the Left Party, but is rather repeating their mistakes or continuing her own wrong line, as she never fundamentally rejected government participation with pro-capitalist SPD and Greens when she was still in the Left Party. She has set the bar high for forming a government – for fear of falling out of favour with her voters too quickly. But despite these conditions, she has expressed a fundamental willingness to govern with pro-capitalist parties. This is not surprising, as she herself has long since become an advocate of the ‘social market economy’. But with these parties and within the framework of this capitalist system, it is not possible to confront the power of the banks, corporations and the super-rich, whose wealth is precisely the reason for the social ills on the other side. And the source of the capitalists’ power lies in capitalist property relations.
Prospects
After these elections, it is completely unclear what will happen next. The only thing that is certain is that in both Saxony and Thuringia forming a government will be complicated or even impossible given the polarised political balance of power and the weakness of the established parties. Minority governments, tolerations, “changing majorities” and new elections will also be among the possible options.
The BSW has directly become a ‘power factor’ – as without Wagenknecht’s party, no government majority in these federal states is possible if the AfD is to remain in opposition. Every party has ruled out forming a coalition with the AfD in advance. The CDU also has an ‘incompatibility resolution’ with the Left Party, which also rules out any cooperation with the latter. In Saxony, a majority of CDU, SPD and BSW would be mathematically possible. In Thuringia, this would require one more vote.
A major dilemma has arisen for the established parties, and the CDU in particular. No wonder that the debate about how to deal with the BSW, the Left Party and the AfD is in full swing within the party. Friedrich Merz had left it up to the regional CDU parties to negotiate with the BSW. How they deal with the BSW’s foreign policy demands remains to be seen. In particular, Wagenknecht and the BSW’s top candidate in Thuringia, Katja Wolf, sent positive signals to the CDU after the election. The coming weeks and months will show whether they can agree on joint governments or tolerations to vote in a CDU-led government.
It cannot be ruled out that agreement will be reached taking initiatives in the Bundesrat, the upper chamber of the German parliament, for more diplomacy in Ukraine or on limited investment projects in individual social areas. But such governments will not solve the many social problems that exist for the working class. On the contrary: within the framework of capitalism and with the CDU, such a government will sooner or later carry out attacks on the working class and the socially disadvantaged.
In 2019, the Anti-Capitalist Left (AKL), a left grouping within the Left Party, in Berlin described what this should look like, among other things:
Introduction of free public transport and massive expansion of rail transport in urban and rural areas; confiscation of speculative vacant housing, nationalisation of property companies under democratic control and management, rent reduction and capping of rents to cost-based rents, construction of municipal housing; Introduction of the 35-hour week with full wage and staff compensation in the public sector as an introduction to further reductions in working hours; renationalisation and massive job creation in hospitals, transport companies and all areas of public services under democratic control and management by democratically elected councils of employees, users, trade unions and state representatives; Companies that are threatening redundancies or cutbacks should be transferred to state ownership under democratic control and management; the state and local authorities should take advantage of all opportunities to tax the rich and company profits; massive investment in infrastructure and social welfare; abolition of all fees and costs in the education system, setting up a programme to fully cover vacancies in schools, disbanding the State Office for the Protection of the Constitution (the domestic intelligence service which is massively entangled with far right activities) and setting up an independent investigation committee into the far-right NSU terrorist group with the participation of anti-racist organisations, migrant associations and trade unions.
Neither the BSW nor the SPD, and certainly not the CDU, will pursue such a programme. On the contrary, there is a threat of further attacks, and not just on the rights of refugees.
Socialist opposition needed
In Thuringia in particular, the Left Party will come under great pressure to join such an alliance or at least make it possible. One single member of parliament crossing over would also be enough to give an CDU, SPD and BSW alliance a majority. Unfortunately, neither this nor the support of a CDU-led government by the Thuringian Left as a whole is unlikely. However, this would further seal the path of decline that the Left Party has already taken as part of the establishment.
The task of the Left Party is to stand up for wage earners and the socially disadvantaged and to fight for policies in their interests. A CDU-led government would do the opposite and continue to attack their rights – bringing them to power can therefore not be the task of the Left Party. In this situation, a socialist party would have to explain that the polarised political situation is an expression of the massive dissatisfaction among the population. It should not take responsibility for ensuring that this continues to grow by supporting a government ‘for the sake of government’ – precisely because this would otherwise benefit the far-right AfD as the only opposition party in the state parliament.
A complete about-turn by the Left Party is desperately needed so that the party can make it clear to the working class that it has value for them. This would mean fighting as a socialist opposition against all the social ills in the country and the expected attacks by the next government, as well as focussing on building extra-parliamentary resistance on the streets, in workplaces, schools and universities. Unfortunately, it seems almost impossible that this will happen.
Debates within the AfD
At this point, it still seems extremely unlikely that the AfD will be included in a government. The Thuringian AfD which is headed by its notorious far-right leader Björn Höcke is too uncontrollable for the capitalists and the outcry among the population would be too great. The AfD’s blocking minority in Thuringia enables it to block certain legislative proposals, the election of judges and the dissolution of the state parliament.
There will also be new debates in the AfD about ‘what next’. The wing around Weidel (one of the AfD’s two co-leaders) and Gauland (its honorary chair) wants to form a government with the CDU in the future, but the far-right to fascist Höcke-led wing is standing in the way, which has now been strengthened once again and, unlike other right-wing populist forces such as in Italy or France, does not want to be so easily pigeonholed into the bourgeois establishment fearing for a future loss of support.
Consequences of the elections
It is no coincidence that these developments are taking place in eastern Germany. Contrary to many West German and some East German commentators, the reasons for this are not to be found in GDR-induced resistance to democracy or the political stupidity of the East German population. The political system of capitalism, which was introduced here over 30 years ago, is simply particularly rotten here. In large parts of eastern Germany, it is not the famously promised “blooming landscapes” which was offered, but a persistently poorer position compared to the west, lower incomes and wealth, decaying communities, transport links and infrastructure and an ageing population due to migration mainly to western Germany. A widespread feeling that they were simply “taken over” by the western rulers has meant that established bourgeois parties have never been able to put down the same roots as they had in the west while the failure of the Left Party to become an active and combative force is particularly noticeable.
But these elections are not a purely ‘East German’ phenomenon. The strengthening of the AfD and BSW, the disappointment with the government parties and the Left Party, the limits and problems of the CDU – all of this also exists in the West. The developments are therefore a foreshadowing of the future. Thus the September 1 ‘earthquake’ in Thuringia and Saxony will be more like a ‘shake-up’ compared to the developments that will come in the next few years.
The days of the Ampel traffic light government are numbered. The coming elections in the Eastern state of Brandenburg at the end of September and particularly the SPD’s result will certainly be important in determining whether the Ample government will muddle through until the Bundestag elections scheduled for autumn 2025 or fall apart before then. The FDP will also continue to rumble and the party leadership will continue to ask itself whether it is better to go into the Bundestag election campaign as part of this coalition or as the catalyst for its collapse. The capitalist class could also increase its pressure for snap elections.
Polarisation instead of a social shift to the right
These elections mark a further shift to the right at parliamentary level. This should not be underestimated. The strengthening of the AfD and CDU, the poisoning of public debates and the increase in racism are extremely dangerous – also because less is being said about the real social problems. However, it is wrong for Left Party leaders Martin Schirdewan and Janine Wissler, who have both announced they will not seek re-election at the October party conference, to imply that this is a consequence of ‘a social shift in the balance of power’ and a ‘right-wing zeitgeist’. Firstly, this fails to recognise their own responsibility for the rise of right-wing and far-right forces by adapting to the bourgeois political establishment and, secondly, this underestimates that there are left-wing developments alongside right-wing developments.
In spring, the largest demonstrations in many decades took place in Germany against the AfD. Although these were often politically dominated by pro-capitalist forces and the establishment, which is why they were unable to weaken AfD support significantly or sustainably, these protests nevertheless made it clear that a majority is still against the AfD. There is a social polarisation whose left pole tragically finds no political expression. The waves of strikes in recent years and the new members joining the trade unions alone are proof of this. Especially when it comes to social issues such as health, education, jobs, social inequality, etc., there are majorities in favour of left-wing positions.
Everything cries out for a mass left-wing party of workers and the socially disadvantaged. Building such a force is ultimately necessary not only to get the AfD down, but also to lead the resistance against attacks on living standards and the rights of wage earners with a socialist perspective. The lessons from the failure of the Left Party must be learnt by those on its left wing as well as socialists and trade unionists outside the party.
But even if there is no combative left-wing mass party today, this does not mean that the AfD is unstoppable. The trade unions in particular are called upon to do much more, to organise their own political campaigns and protests in favour of the interests of wage earners, against social grievances and racism. In this way, the working class could influence social debates so that the real problems faced by millions every day and their causes are discussed and combated. Workers need their own political force and a discussion must therefore be started in the trade unions on how this can be built up and how the de facto support of many trade union leaders for the pro-capitalist SPD can be ended.
Upcoming class struggles
Nothing would be more wrong than to bury the heads in the sand in the face of these results. The potential for resistance and class struggle is there. The capitalists is pushing for far-reaching attacks and cuts. It is also becoming increasingly clear that there will be more job cuts. Whether at ThyssenKrupp Steel, Deutsche Bahn or now the announcements at Volkswagen threatening compulsory redundancies and plant closures in Germany. These are harbingers of social conflict on a scale that has not been seen for a long time. This class struggle from above must be answered by class struggle from below. Such social struggles, in which workers recognise their common interests regardless of origin or skin colour and stand up for them, will also be the best means against racism.
