In the election for the Japanese House of Representatives, held on 27th of October, the Liberal Democratic Party/Komeito coalition government of Shigeru Ishiba lost its majority. The government was expecting to do badly in the election, but both the government and political pundits were surprised by the scale of the defeat. The LDP vote in the Proportional Representation section was only 26.7%, a miserable performance for a party that has dominated Japanese politics since 1955, and equal to its worst performance ever in 2009, when it lost power to the opposition Democratic Party.
The scandal in which LDP Diet members, largely but not solely from the formerly dominant Abe Faction, received substantial amounts of money that was not declared in accordance with the political funding laws, was widely identified as the main reason for the defeat. The suspicion was that the money, exempt from tax as political funds, had been pocketed by the Diet members concerned. Following on from the exposure of the influence of religious cults, such as the Moonies, and their links with the Abe faction [named after the assassinated former prime minister Abe Shinzo] this was definitely an important factor in their losses.
However it was compounded by discontent with economic stagnation and the fall in real wages over the last 20 odd years that had continued under both LDP and opposition rule. The falling living standards had become more acute in the recent period with larger price increases.
In an attempt to cut across discontent that had continued to build under the Kishida Government, the LDP resorted to its usual tactic, and elected a new face as its leader. This time they chose Shigeru Ishiba, who had been the main critic within the party of the policies pursued during the period of Abe rule. As such, he began with a relatively favourable approval rating of just over 50%. Ishiba hoped to strike a blow against his opponents in the Abe faction by withdrawing party support for those implicated in the scandal and calling a quick election, before the opposition could agree joint candidates for the single seat constituencies that elect the largest number of representatives.
However, the gamble did not pay off. To appease the right wing majority of representatives Ishiba retreated even on issues such as the right of women to keep their own name after marriage, which he had previously supported. It was then revealed that the LDP had provided local parties with Diet members implicated in scandals with extra funds. The reality of what an Ishiba government would mean became clear to wider layers of the public. The cabinet’s approval rating fell in the short time between Ishiba’s election as leader and these elections, to 32.1%.
While the opposition parties, by and large, were not able to agree on joint candidates, voters opposed to the government coalition went to the polls and voted in large numbers for the party they saw was most likely to defeat the candidates of the governing coalition in their constituency. In most of the country that was the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, but the conservative Democratic Party for the People also made substantial gains. Even the right wing Japan Renovation Party (Ishin) lost ground nationally, but gained seats from the coalition parties in its stronghold of the Greater Osaka area.
While the election likely marks the end of the period of relatively stable LDP rule since 2012, the make up of the next government is not yet clear and will be decided by a vote in the House of Representatives in the next 30 days. Because of the system used to elect the PM, a run-off between the two candidates with the most votes, there is a slight chance that an opposition government could be formed.
However, at the time of writing it seems likely that despite a KYODO NEWS poll conducted after the election showing that 53% do not want the present coalition to continue, and despite the fact that Ishiba’s enemies in the LDP are baying for his blood, probably the most likely result is that the present coalition will continue, at least for now, with the support of pro-LDP independents and tacit support from the outside from more conservative opposition parties, such as DPFP and Ishin.
While it is traditional for a leader to step down after an election defeat, Ishiba’s foes are in no rush to drink from the poisoned chalice of negotiations with opposition parties or to deal with the “politics and money” issue. So while in the short term Ishiba may get a reprieve, his longer term prospects don’t look promising.
Weakness of opposition parties
As supporters of the Committee for a Workers’ International have pointed out before, the continued dominance of the LDP is largely a result of the weaknesses of the opposition. With the exception of the traditional parties of the left, the Communist Party, whose vote fell from 7.25% at the last election to 6.16% this time, and the minuscule Social Democratic Party, every other opposition party has been formed in the last 10 years. Voters find it difficult to follow their policies and distinguish between them. Identification and loyalty to these parties is almost non-existent. A Statista poll of party support conducted this August, shows that while 29.9% identified as supporters of the LDP, a majority identified with no political party. The largest opposition party the CDPJ only had 5.2% identifying with it, the Japanese Communist Party had 2.6%, Nippon Ishin no Kai 2.4% and none of the other opposition parties could muster even 1%. None of these parties advance a clear working class and socialist standpoint.
The largest of the opposition parties, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, was only formed in 2017 by a fusion of more liberal elements in the former Democratic Party rejected by the new party formed by the Tokyo governor Koike Yuriko and a majority of the Social Democratic Party. It has inherited the support of the main public sector unions within the Rengo union federation. It originally adopted a number of radical positions, such as restoring the right of public sector workers to strike and emerged as the major opposition
party by opposing Abe’s security legislation which allowed for the despatch of the self defence forces overseas in a block with the Social Democratic Party of Japan and the Communist Party.
However, since emerging as the main opposition party it has attracted a number of more conservative Diet members who had been members of the defunct Democratic Party of Japan. Their present leader, Yoshihiko Noda, who only joined the party in 2021, is a former premier and leader of the Democratic Party of Japan who demolished the support for his party by agreeing a substantial sales tax increase in agreement with the LDP. He has moved the CDPJ towards “more realistic positions.” In other words not repealing the Abe Security Act even though the party has argued it was unconstitutional. He has moved the party away from agreements with the Japan Communist Party and towards stronger links with the DFPP and even Ishin. In the election the party mainly campaigned on the issue of money politics and while it was the main beneficiary of tactical voting against the coalition government in the single seat constituencies, It increased its overall number of seats from 98 to 143, its share of the vote in the proportional representation section only rose from 20% to 21.2%. Hardly a ringing vote of confidence in Noda’s “moderate” conservative policies.
The DPfP also gained seats in the election rising from 11 to 28 seats and increasing its vote in the proportional representation from 4.5% last time to 11.32% this time. Its increase in support, as well as tactical voting, probably also reflects the fact that it campaigned largely on economic issues such as take home pay, advocating increased wages and tax concessions for the low paid. While this undoubtedly won it some support from working class voters, this is the party supported by the large private sector trade unions. They have done very little to fight for an increase in wages over the past 30 years. Recently unions like the car workers (jidosha Soren) and the electric power workers (Denryoku Soren) have moved closer to the LDP because of their opposition to promotion of electric cars and support for nuclear restarts. Far from bringing change, in reality this is the party most likely to provide a life line to an LDP government from the outside by providing support “policy by policy.”It is already in policy negotiations with the LDP, although its leaders have promised to support CDPJ leader Noda Yoshiko in a run-off if their own leader, Tamaki, gets less votes.
To the left of these parties the Communist Party lost ground, among other reasons for its expulsion without debate, of members who argued for the election of its leader by the entire membership. It has been displaced as the largest opposition party on the left by the rise of the left-populist Reiwa Shinsen Gumi. This party was only founded in 2019 and is built around a former TV personality blacklisted for his opposition to nuclear power. The party puts forward a generally social democratic programme, pointing out the massive transfer of
taxation from corporations to the working class over the last period. It has taken radical stances on rights of disabled as well as LGBT rights. The party tripled its representation in this election, going from 3 to 9 seats, all in the proportional representation section. Its vote was up from 3.86% to nearly 7%. While it’s possible this party could continue to develop, it also has a relatively narrow activist base and is still very much a one man band, built around its popular leader Yamamoto Taro.
A sign of a beginning of polarisation was the fact that two far-right, anti-foreigner parties each won seats in the election. The number of foreign workers is still relatively small, and with a severe labour shortage in the regions, public opinion has become more favourable to the use of foreign workers. However with the same legislation the government has simultaneously taken measures to encourage foreign workers and at the same time make it easier to cancel permanent residence rights of those existing foreign workers. The capitalists are quite capable of exploiting foreign labour while at the same time their political representatives attempt to scapegoat foreign workers. If an alternative is not built on the left these parties could grow.
While discontent with LDP governments has grown, the nature of the electoral system, the weakness of the opposition parties and also the rottenness of the leadership of the major unions, means that we are likely to see a prolonged crisis of the system. Unlike the 2009 election which resulted in a change of government, this time there was no rise in electoral participation, the turnout was 53.85% the third lowest in the post-war period. There is a general mood that things are not going forward and little confidence in either the government or opposition parties to turn the situation around. Interestingly, the post election Kyodo telephone poll asked people what their preferred government structure would be after the election 18.1% chose a minority government of the LDP and Komeito, 24.6% chose “a government centred around the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan and other opposition parties” and the most popular at 31.5 percent was ”a new framework through political realignment.” This was a vote not just against the existing LDP government but the whole political system. Voters know what they reject, the existing state of things that has meant the majority of working people have faced a fall in their standard of living,
but they do not yet clearly know what they want or how to get it. In the coming years every existing party will be put to the test. A new party of the working class will be foraged from the organised labour movement and those layers of society radicalised by the crisis of Japanese and world capitalism.
CWI supporters in Japan fight for:
* Co-ordinated strike action to win substantial pay increases for all workers.
* A drive to organise irregular workers and workers in small and medium sized companies.
* No to discrimination against foreign workers for freedom to change jobs and
* The right of public sector workers to strike.
* An end the repression against industrially organised unions such as the Kansai Ready Mixed Concrete workers.
* For fighting unions independent of management.
* A radical and reinvigorated labour movement to help create a new party to give a political voice to the working class.
* No to an increase in defence spending and rearmament
* For a government of the working class to break the power of the big corporations.
* No to imperialism and war. The main enemy of the working class is not the working class of other countries, but the ruling class in its own country!
