Months of power cuts and rising prices are undermining Egyptian President Abdel Fatah el-Sisi. His government is under growing pressure from all sides.
In July, Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly complained, “No one expected the heatwaves we have been experiencing and the continuously high temperatures that have lasted not just for a day or two but for weeks on end. We are in a constant state of emergency every day.”
Alarm bells should be ringing about climate change due to global heating. Instead, the government (that hosted COP27 in 2022) has just cut its renewable energy target for 2040 from 58% to 40%.
The power cuts follow a fall in Egypt’s gas output. Total annual production from all its gas fields dropped from 70bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2021 to a forecast 53 bcm this year. Egypt has had to import more oil and gas, costing $6.3bn in the year to March 2024. This compares with a peak net export surplus of $4.4bn in the year to September 2022.
Some gas fields are now thought to contain less gas than originally estimated, like Zohr which was originally expected to be 30tn cubic feet (tcf) but now seeming more like 10-11tcf.
Extracting the gas needs continual investment, but there was a severe shortage of foreign currency earlier this year. With payments to the oil and gas companies in arrears by an estimated $6bn, they reduced their investment in new drilling.
Power shortages have hit industrial production, such as the fertiliser sector, in which Saudi Arabia has bought significant stakes in recent years. Saudi companies had accumulated $5bn in profits that were stuck in Egypt. The shortage of foreign currency prevented the withdrawal of large sums from the country until March this year, when devaluation and a $35bn bailout by the IMF and Gulf States restored some life to Egypt’s banking system.
Egypt could get more gas supplied from Israel. Last year, Israel’s export capacity was around 15 bcm, which is projected to rise to 25-30bcm by the end of the decade. It doesn’t have any other easily accessible large market for its gas, but increasing trade with Israel will greatly increase Egyptians’ anger against Sisi.
Falling living standards spark two strikes
The government increased the price of petroleum products by 10-17% on 18th October, following rises in March and July. Inflation officially stood at 26.4% in September, slightly higher than the previous two months but lower than February, when it peaked at 35.7%. Working and middle class people have suffered drastic cuts in their standard of living.
There are signs workers are starting to fight back, despite severe repression. In August, 550 Samanoud Weaving and Textile Company workers went on strike, staying out for a month. Around 330 of those taking action were women. They demanded the LE6000 minimum wage Sisi had announced earlier this year, which should have been implemented on May 1st. The company is state-owned.
The strike ended a month later under threats of dismissal and arrest. Ten workers were arrested in the early hours of the morning, blindfolded and hand cuffed. In some cases, family members were taken when the workers were not found at home. They were suspended from work, including union leader Hesham el-Banna, who was kept in custody for several days.
State repression
Charges included: “deliberate disruption of production facilities with the intent to harm the national economy, incitement to organise meetings and demonstrations that threaten public security and order, obstruction of citizens’ rights and their ability to work, disruption of public utilities, organising a gathering of five or more people that endangers public safety, refusal to comply with police orders to disperse, and attempting to influence public authorities and disrupt public services.”
The workers were also accused of deliberately harming the assets and interests of Samanoud Weaving and Textile Company. As one commented, with their livelihoods dependent on the company, why would they want to damage it? A National Security Agency officer has been stationed at the company since the strike ended.
Workers received less than quarter of their September wages due to punitive deductions and penalties. When one protested at receiving just LE300 instead of LE3500 he was also threatened with dismissal.
The company has now brought new charges against Hesham al-Banna, with a court hearing to fire him due on November 6th. These vicious measures against striking workers are a warning from the state to all workers not to fight for better pay and conditions.
The factory is less than five kilometres from the giant Mahalla al-Kubra factory, where 28,000 workers went on strike in 2006, which was a key step towards the mass uprising that ended President Hosni Mubarak’s 31-year rule in 2011. They were on strike again in February this year (https://www.socialistworld.net/2024/03/07/renewed-workers-actions-offer-hope-for-change-in-egypt/)
About 3500 workers at the state-owned Egyptian Aluminum Company in Qena began a partial strike on 22nd October. The workers began a sit-in inside the factory protesting at management’s decision to reduce workers’ profit shares by about half. The sit-in turned into a strike, with workers partially halting production and adding demands for increases to their meal and the cost of living allowances. Basic wages of young workers are only LE1,000-1,200 a month, increasing to a maximum of about LE5,000 with allowances and bonuses. As a result, many rely on the annual profit share.
Sales and profits fell during the pandemic. But profits doubled since 2022. “We accepted that there were no profits during the covid period. Now, when things are going fine, you say I get nothing?” one worker told news-site Mada Masr.
No amount of state repression can indefinitely hold down workers’ determination to restore and improve their living standards. These strikes are signs of a movement that will grow. The Egyptian working class is potentially the most powerful force in society, if organised together and with determined and clear leadership.
A mass working class movement would gain support from other oppressed layers of society, and could change the situation throughout the Middle East, currently overshadowed by war, growing famine and disease.
Building independent trade unions and a mass workers’ party with a socialist programme will be needed to end poverty and win democratic rights. Their foundations need laying down now, despite Sisi’s severe repression.
Protests at Hesham al-Banna’s arrest can be sent to Egyptian embassies ahead of his November 6th trial.
