The victory of Trump and his refashioned Republican party clearly opens new chapters in both US and world history.
For many in a polarised US this victory of right populism will strike more than a note of fear, especially among women fearing attacks on their reproductive rights and migrants fearing they, or their family members, will be caught up in Trump’s promised deportation drive.
There is also the question of whether Trump will seek revenge against his past enemies, something not unheard of as the Democrats have not been averse to using the state machine against their opponents. However, for those who believed Trump’s promises of an end to inflation, a rise in living standards and better days, a ‘Greater America’ and a ‘New Golden Age’, their hopes for the future will be high right now, but ultimately these dreams will be dashed as capitalist reality bites.
Internationally Trump’s victory opens the door to possibly important shifts, like enforcing a deal between Ukraine and Russia, probably in Russia’s favour. And giving Netanyahu a green light to seriously attack Iran, possibly with US support, just as Biden recently approved the stationing of B52 strategic bombers in the Middle East. No wonder Netanyahu rapidly congratulated Trump on his “huge victory!”
Above all there is the prospect of heightened tensions and possibly conflicts with China. The likely imposition of new and higher import tariffs will impact around the world, especially China, Mexico and Europe. This will probably lead to disruption of the world market, possibly recessions in some countries, and resultant increased tensions.
Economy
Trump’s victory is a big defeat for the sections of the US capitalist class who do not trust him and who campaigned against his candidature, in this, the most expensive US presidential election ever. But the Democrats were incapable of replying to Trump’s repeated use of Reagan’s 1980 question, ‘Are you better off than you were four years ago?’. Amongst voters the economy was the most important issue, at 39%, followed by immigration at 20%. But Harris proved unwilling or unable to answer key questions on the practical issues.
The pain inflicted by high inflation two years ago has not gone away and, while today’s inflation rate is lower, most prices, particularly groceries, have not fallen, now they are just rising more slowly. This is one of the key reasons for the sharp fall in the Democrat vote. Alongside stopping inflation Trump presented himself as a ‘strong man’ who would deal with immigration, security and who was able to prevent wars.
The war in Gaza, coupled with the recent Israeli offensive in Lebanon, was another factor hitting Democratic support. Anger at the US arming of Israel with weapons that have killed over 43,000 in Gaza fuelled the sizable ‘uncommitted’ vote in some Democratic primaries. Significantly in Michigan over 44,600 voted for Jill Stein of the anti-war Green party, over three times the size of the state’s Green vote in 2020. This is a sign of how, despite the polarisation, there were some who did not want to be dragged behind the Democrats’ policies simply to stop Trump.
In their campaign, Trump and, especially his deputy Vance, demagogically used elements of ‘class’ rhetoric to mobilise support amongst workers. Harris in contrast used vague talk of ‘hope’ combined with Identity Politics, and an increasing involvement of right-wing, anti-Trump Republicans in her campaign. Trump’s victory is also a defeat for much of the liberal intelligentsia whose arrogance and support for the Democrats left them incapable, or unwilling, to convincingly answer the economic and social questions Trump campaigned on in a way that could divide his support. Simply calling Trump a ‘fascist’ was seen by his supporters as an effort by the elite to maintain their own power and influence.
While final figures are not yet available at this time it is clear that, unlike in 2016, Trump has won a majority of votes, around 51% to Harris’s 47.5%. It appears that the Republican share of the vote rose in 48 of the USA’s 50 states. Significantly Trump made further inroads amongst white voters without a college degree (from 48% support in 2020 to 65% now), 18 to 29 year olds (from 36% to 42%) and Hispanic voters (from 32% to 45%); in fact Trump’s support only fell amongst the over-65s and college educated women.
Trump is now faced with the question of delivery, especially on living standards. The likelihood that the Republicans will have a ‘trifecta’ – the Presidency, Senate and the House of Representatives, plus a supportive Supreme Court – means that Trump will have few excuses. His supporters will look to him for decisive action. Trump may start his presidency with high profile raids against undocumented migrants and other such actions. After all, last December Trump said that “Except for day one … I’m not a dictator.”
But the key, as he himself has repeatedly said, is living standards and good jobs. The inevitable failure by Trump to deliver these will lead growing numbers to draw the conclusion that they themselves need to take action, to struggle, to improve their lot. It is quite possible that some Trump voters will become determined working class fighters when they see that Trump and Vance are not delivering their promises.
For the majority of the US ruling class this is a further worrying prospect as they do not regard Trump as a reliable representative and fear what he might do if his presidency runs into crisis. This is especially so as the Supreme Court last July ruled that a US President had immunity for their ‘official’ actions. Sections of the ruling class are worried about what orders Trump may give, domestically or internationally, particularly as he is ‘Commander in Chief’ of the entire military. Although Trump is not leading a fascist movement aiming at crushing all others, he is clearly threatening to try to use the power of the state against some minorities and opponents.
Failure of ‘lesser evilism’
In this extremely polarised election the millions who voted for Harris as a ‘lesser’ evil or as a ‘change’ candidate given she is a Black woman will, naturally, be disappointed and fearful. There could even be despondence which could be deepened by the inevitable attempts to blame voters, especially working class voters, for Trump’s victory. But the reality is not only that the Democrats could not solve the immediate issues but that they themselves, as a steadfast party of capitalism, are part of the problem.
The Democrats have no fundamental solutions. The way Biden was removed and then no discussion allowed on who should be their candidate shows that the Democrats are a machine not a genuine political party, and certainly not a democratic one. Politically they represent key sections of the ruling class, which is seen by how the Democrats put emphasis on working with anti-Trump Republicans rather than even attempting to address the concerns of workers who were attracted to Trump.
Stormy times lie ahead, which socialists and activists need to prepare for. Public support for trade unions is, at well over two thirds of the US population, the highest it’s been for 60 years. Trump’s previous presidency saw a wave of strikes and recently there have been the big strikes of autoworkers, longshoremen (dockers) and Boeing workers. The greater willingness to take strike action will be a significant factor in future developments.
Events and future struggles will pose the question of what political alternative is needed. The Republicans could, at some point, enter into crisis, as struggles for control break out, particularly after Trump departs the scene. Such a struggle could give rise to the development of a right populist party, hostile to what is seen as the ‘establishment’, as seen in parts of Europe and Latin America.
The Democrats may attempt a facelift but will remain, at heart, a completely pro-capitalist outfit that in power does not carry any decisive changes. But, like the Republicans, the Democrats carry within them the possibility of splits as they cannot keep on repeating the same old story of disappointing their supporters.
Now it is a question of preparing for a future that is likely to be stormy. On the left there needs to be a balance sheet of the last years when support for the general idea of ‘socialism’ massively grew, but saw a significant part of the left drawn towards the Democrats under the banner of supporting the ‘lesser evil’. While this desire is understandable, the result of this policy is perpetuating the existing ‘two-party’ system which is failing the majority. This election result is also a failure of the ‘lesser evil’ strategy that saw a section of the so-called left capitulate to the Democratic leadership, did not oppose joint Democratic campaigning with anti-Trump Republicans and thus effectively endorsed a strategy that strengthened Trump’s appeal to a section of the working class.
Already before this election there was a new round of the continuing debate of whether workers and socialists should strive to build campaigns and organisations that are independent from capitalist formations and involved in struggle. Such steps are linked to the need for candidates independent from capitalist parties to stand in elections as part of building a party that is genuinely run by and for the working class.
This task has become even more important now as the questioning of the US system is not over. A Fox News election day poll reported that about 70% of voters felt that the US was “on the wrong track” – this feeling won’t simply go away. The challenge is to build the forces able to fight both for immediate improvements and the socialist alternative that is necessary.
