Germany goes to the polls with racist populist AfD running second: What way forward for the working class?

Germany goes to the polls on 23 February for elections to the Bundestag (parliament) after the so-called ‘traffic light coalition’ (comprised of social democrats, Greens and liberals) collapsed in November.

Germany is one of the richest countries in the world. But there is deep dissatisfaction due to economic decline and crumbling physical and social infrastructures, illustrated daily by the chaos on a once reliable railway system. After years of sacrifice, wage restraint, benefit cuts, privatisation and the spread of low-paid, precarious jobs, the working class can see no light at the end of the tunnel and there are widespread fears about the future.

This has alienated many people from the ‘moderate’ establishment parties who have governed this malaise for years in every variant of coalitions and only disappointed most voters. Broad masses now want something radically different. But how could the SPD (social democrats) and Greens offer a better life for workers in the recently collapsed coalition with the liberal FDP – the “small party of big business”? All three will now be punished by voters.

However, even worse attacks on living standards, jobs and services will come from a CDU-led coalition – maybe with the Greens, maybe with the SPD and FDP, depending on the results. Another winner will be the racist populist AfD (Alternative for Germany), which is now second in the polls. The election could see seven parties getting over the minimum 5% of votes to enter the Bundestag, or only four.

The background to all this is the serious crisis facing German industry. From the 1990s, German capital moved into low-waged Eastern Europe and China. Replacing factories at home with new ones abroad enabled them to extract concessions from trade union leaders on wages and conditions of employment. After the 2008 world financial crash, Germany increased its own trade at the expense of its Southern European EU and Eurozone “partners”. It was able to use its high productivity to become the world’s top exporter at one stage.

But now the direction of travel internationally is away from globalisation, and towards protectionism and trade wars. The lack of domestic consumer demand due to a shrunken share of national income for workers means that this export dependency has left the former ‘powerhouse of Europe’ more exposed to the vagaries of and sharpening competition within the world market.

Workers are faced with factory closures, lay-offs, longer hours and wage cuts, dramatically seen at Volkswagen. The illusion of ‘social partnership’ between unions and employers, which contributed to industrial peace and political stability for decades, now lies in tatters, replaced by the brutal reality of a class society based on exploitation and growing inequality to maintain shareholder value. At this stage, the union leaders can’t come to terms with this reality and have capitulated to bosses’ demands, for example accepting 35,000 job losses at Volkswagen.

In this new point in history, with two years of recession and a bleak future creating political instability and radicalisation, there exists no mass workers’ party to offer a way forward.

The trade union bureaucracy – representing mainly skilled workers in secure, protected jobs – has maintained its loyalty to the SPD. This hasn’t stopped the growth of the precariat over the last 30 years. Sections of low-paid and unemployed workers, as well as small business owners and others, now look to the AfD as an electoral alternative.

The SPD and Greens broke with the rhetoric of the ‘social state’ 20 years ago, with drastic attacks on benefits and with peace and no military intervention abroad. Now they have made an even more dramatic break with their past ‘principles’ by increasing the share of GDP spent on armaments, even changing the constitution, putting a huge financial burden of 100 billion euros onto the working class. This openly imperialist and militarist course reflects a worsening of the capitalist world economy and relations. They have also brutally suppressed domestic opposition to their stance on the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East.

Die Linke

In the last decades, workers in the east of Germany have given Die Linke (the Left) the first chance, electing it to office in several states. But instead of using these positions as a platform to mobilise mass movements against government cuts or high rents, for example, giving it an opportunity to win support for genuine socialist ideas, these ‘practical’ politicians have loyally administered the capitalist system, along with the SPD, through more cuts and privatisation. As a result, Die Linke failed to become a mass workers’ party and eclipse the SPD and Greens.

A section of the party’s right wing around Sara Wagenknecht jumped the drifting ship and formed the populist BSW, which panders to anti-migrant and anti-benefits prejudices. It has even joined the conservative CDU in one state government, as have the Greens in three others. However, in the polarised situation, Die Linke’s membership has suddenly jumped by over a third this year to a record high while it has also risen in the opinion polls.

To divert attention from their planned full-frontal attack on workers’ rights, living standards and conditions, the CDU has cynically seized on brutal and tragic killings to make racism against migrants the main election issue. In 2016, then CDU leader Angela Merkel didn’t bring in 1 million refugees as an act of kindness, rather to boost the supply of labour to business, to try to keep wages down and worsen conditions of employment. Now the bosses are exploiting migrants politically, blaming them for all the failures of their declining system.

The CDU has symbolically removed the so-called ‘firewall’ it used to try to politically isolate the far-right AfD, by passing a motion against migration together with the AfD and BSW. But in reality, all the capitalist parties have adapted to anti-migrant populism for years, which just legitimises the racists and enables them to go further.

The SPD and Greens are outraged by this taboo break because it removes the long-nurtured pretence of a cross-class liberal ‘morality’. The AfD should be combated with a political alternative that offers a genuine solution to the mounting economic and social problems. The SPD and Greens can’t, because big business can’t ‘afford’ those concessions and maintain its wealth. Any attempt to combat the AfD by bureaucratic means, relying on the state to ban it, just ducks the issues, reveals the SPD’s political bankruptcy and will boomerang.

A new CDU-led government offensive and the emboldened far right must be challenged from below by the unions and social movements. With its new support, Die Linke should actively turn to workers involved in the coming industrial struggles to defend jobs, wages and conditions, and it should help build the Network for Militant Trade Unions, as the Socialist Party’s sister party in Germany, Sol, already does.

If unions, migrants’ organisations and other social and protest movements come together to fight the inevitable government attacks in the workplaces and in the streets, then they could form the basis for a new mass party. Die Linke could be the focus for this, but only by basing itself on the struggles of workers and youth, and adopting a fighting socialist programme.

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