The UK general election resulted in a historic defeat for the Conservative Party in England and Wales, and the Scottish National Party (SNP) in Scotland, with Keir Starmer’s pro-capitalist Labour Party gaining a majority in Parliament.
In Northern Ireland, the election reflected a further sharpening of sectarian divisions. The Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) lost three of its eight seats, out of 18 total in the north of Ireland, reflecting the wider crisis in political unionism.
Roots of DUP crisis
The day before the election, Jeffrey Donaldson, who was still leader of the DUP in February, appeared before a criminal court to face charges related to allegations of historic sex offences.
That event would impact any party’s vote, let alone the DUP for whom ‘traditional Protestant morals’ are a basic building block. But it was only the latest difficulty facing the party, which are a long time in coming.
Only five years ago, the party was dominant. But, after supporting a Brexit vote in 2016, the DUP proceeded to back the most hardline elements of the Tory party in voting down any Brexit deal which might have restricted the need for checks or barriers to trade between the UK and European Union (EU).
With the intervention of the US government and the European Commission, the Irish government secured a commitment from London that the checks would not happen on the land border in Ireland – forcing checks onto the sea border between Northern Ireland and Great Britain. While this deal ensured the UK could continue to trade in EU markets, the DUP were hoist with their own petard, betrayed by the Tory leader Boris Johnson.
That situation led to riots on the streets, as loyalists reacted to a deal which left Northern Ireland in the EU single market for goods, and subject to rulings on goods by the European Court of Justice, and heralding a future all-Ireland economy.
Grassroots pressure led to the DUP being forced to quit the government in Stormont, and a two-year suspension of the power-sharing institutions. During that time, the party leadership aligned themselves in rallies with the most openly reactionary elements of loyalism in opposing the sea border, and demanding a land border instead.
In its attempt to ratchet up the pressure on the DUP, and force it back into the power-sharing institutions, the British government adopted a carrot-and-stick approach. The ‘stick’ was to deny pay increases to public sector workers, and threaten brutal cuts and austerity.
The resulting mass industrial action by workers forced the DUP, led by Donaldson, to reverse course in February, and endorse a newly hatched deal (the carrot), which would provide enough to cover the party’s blushes through the removal of some, but not all, of the border checks.
Returning to power-sharing required the party leadership to turn decisively against their former allies in Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV) and loyalism, and forced them to deny the undeniable existence of border checks, under what their hardline opponents branded ‘Donaldson’s deal’.
DUP pay the price
With the announcement of a snap election for 4 July, incoming DUP leader Gavin Robinson admitted that his predecessor had oversold the deal, in a clear attempt to recover ground before the party lost even more seats. It was too little too late for many hardline unionist voters. Compounded by the party’s wider failure to deliver, the DUP vote slid by 8.5% to 22.1%, and that for the TUV rose by 6.2%.
With a first-past-the-post election, the DUP paid the price, with the biggest story coming in North Antrim. Ian Paisley, one of the only parliamentary representatives to have faced a recall vote, was unseated by TUV party leader Jim Allister. This constituency has a no ‘Ian Paisley’ MP for the first time in 54 years.
The party faced difficulties across the board, and struggled in all but two seats. They narrowly managed to hold onto their seat in East Londonderry against a strong Sinn Féin performance. And party leader Robinson managed to hang on for a tight victory in East Belfast, defeating the Alliance Party leader Naomi Long.
Sinn Féin and Alliance hold steady
While Sinn Féin did not win any additional seats, they ran successful campaigns, retaining the seven they have with increased majorities. The party’s vote increased by 4.2% to 27% – much of this taken from the nationalist Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP), which saw its vote fall by 3.8% to only 11.1%. Aontú, which fought the election on a hardline Catholic-nationalist platform, failed to make any headway and saw its vote fall by 0.2% to 1%.
The Alliance Party won a historic victory in Lagan Valley, but lost its only sitting MP in Strangford – unseated by an independent but hardline former DUP unionist. The Alliance party is viewed by many as moderate – neither nationalist nor unionist. But takes a neoliberal position on economic issues. The party’s vote actually fell 1.8% to 15%.
The Green Party showed a slight advance increasing their vote by 0.9% to 1.1% – largely as a result of running more candidates.
People Before Profit ran a campaign under the slogan of ‘Palestine not Washington’, clearly trying to outflank Sinn Féin with republican voters after that party’s disgraceful hypocrisy on the issue. Their vote increased only marginally from 0.9% to 1.1%.
Tactical voting and turnout
The election was marked by considerable tactical voting on both sides. Sinn Féin withdrew candidates from four constituencies, with the aim of maximising the chances of candidates standing against the DUP. The DUP and TUV withdrew from the Fermanagh-South Tyrone election to give the best chance to the UUP candidate, who became the unionist unity candidate.
The tendency for tactical voting obviously impacted some of the percentages, but where seats were won or lost, as a result of smaller parties not withdrawing, both DUP and Sinn Féin have been highly vociferous in challenging the parties.
As might be expected in such a divisive election – in which the choice is often electing a hardline, right-wing unionist, or an abstentionist Sinn Féin representative – turnout was relatively low. Only 57% voted in this general election – a drop of 4.5%.
Constitutional demands in the aftermath
Social media was quickly filled by nationalist demands for the incoming Labour government to deliver a border poll. These demands ran into the hard reality of the comments by Sir Keir Starmer, which made clear that he stood full-square for a four-nation UK – seeking to capitalise on his decisive victory over the SNP in Scotland, and to stabilise relations with Northern Ireland in particular.
The false confidence expressed by capitalist nationalists, north and south, in a border poll administered by the British state, and having the blessing of both US and EU imperialism, must be consistently challenged by socialists. Such a border poll offers nothing, and will do nothing to overcome either imperialism, or the legacy of sectarian division.
Nationalists were cock-a-hoop about the DUP losses. But the reality is that difficulty is rooted in a deepening base of support for ever more hardline unionism, which will be represented for the first time in Westminster.
It is also blind to the fact that, while unionist parties and unionist independents only secured 43% of the vote, the percentage going to nationalist parties, including People Before Profit, was only 40%.
The long-term prospect is for both nationalism and unionism to remain permanent minorities – able only to scrap for the status of being the largest party, and to administer austerity budgets handed down from Westminster.
Northern Ireland remains within the UK, but has an economy for goods which is locked into the EU, and with the rest of Ireland. The current political arrangements copper-fasten that status, as well as permanent austerity, which is a consequence of the region’s dependence on Westminster budgets set by capitalist governments.
Cross-community labour challenge
In only one constituency was there a class-unity socialist on the ballot. That was Fermanagh and South Tyrone, where Gerry Cullen ran for Cross-Community Labour Alternative (CCLA).
In a highly polarised election, in which both Alliance and SDLP were squeezed, Gerry achieved a highly creditable 623 votes (1.2%), placing him significantly ahead of the Aontú candidate.
Gerry ran on a five-point programme which represents a continuation of the common platform agreed in 2017 by the then Labour Party membership in Northern Ireland when Jeremy Corbyn was leader, Cross-Community Labour Alternative, and Militant Left. This platform has now also been endorsed by the Workers’ Party of Ireland, who issued a statement formally backing Gerry’s candidacy.
The initiative seeks to build on the century-long traditions of worker and class-unity candidates standing for election in Fermanagh and South Tyrone.
Militant Left will continue to play a key role in this initiative, which seeks to build a voice for the workers’ movement in the north of Ireland. There will be efforts to build a constituency party in Fermanagh and South Tyrone, which will hopefully see similar efforts proceed elsewhere in the region.
Only a cross-community socialist alternative – rooted in the working class, and taking a conscious stand against sectarian division – can cut across the dynamic which sees an ever-sharpening polarisation of politics, along sectarian lines.
It is only through cross-community workers’ struggle that a new unity of working-class people, necessarily internationally, will be built. It is that unity that has the capacity to overcome both sectarian division, and offer a road forwards to a better, socialist future.
