Though the establishment parties somehow survived the Aragalaya (The Struggle) in 2022, they were never able to win back the full trust of the masses. The ruling Rajapaksa family then stepped back from governmental positions but maintained their influence in parliament and all state institutions. Ranil Wickremesinghe was appointed president with the help of Rajapaksa’s party, which helped to maintain the status quo. Not only did he protect the corrupt elite and capitalist interests, but he also began a series of IMF-led austerity measures aimed at further punishing the masses.
Though the mass movement was pushed back by heavy repression, the anger and the conditions that created mass resentment remained. Even before the mass struggle, the two key traditional parties, SLFP and UNP, had eroded. The SLPP, the party of the Rajapaksa family, which presented itself as an unbeatable force (Gotabaya won 52.5% in the presidential election in 2019, and then, a year later, won 145 seats out of 225 in parliament), was also reduced to dust by the movement.
The SJB
The SJB, formed in 2020 by Sajith Premadasa, the son of former UNP president Premadasa, ensured that the UNP was no longer a national force, as its support base simply moved towards the SJB. They tried to distance themselves from other parties and even sought to identify with the mass movement. SJB youth took part in the Aragalaya. However, they were not able to garner full support, as they were also seen as part of the elite by a large section of the population who continued to associate Sajith with the UNP. Sajith was not able to attract a significant number of voters who had never supported the UNP. However, some sections of capitalist, regional, and Western interests were prepared to take risks with the SJB, as it was the only viable force they could lean on. This gave the impression that the SJB filled part of the political vacuum. Nevertheless, the UNP support base and the votes from the Hill Country, North, and East kept the SJB alive electorally.
Distancing themselves from Ranil and the Rajapaksas and articulating a few populist programs wasn’t enough. However, many supporters of the SJB were shocked by the result, as they thought they had worked out deals that could succeed. With the support of the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress and part of ITAK (the Tamil Party), they narrowed the gap with the NPP that had existed at the start. Many believe that ITAK followed the Indian embassy’s instructions to support Sajith. This created a lot of uncertainty in the leftist National People’s Power (NPP) camp and led to its candidate, Anura (Anura Kumara Dissanayake), giving a “threatening” speech in Kilinochchi, warning Tamils against voting contrary to the South’s wish for change. This, of course, backfired and arguably played a role in preventing Anura from winning a majority in the first round.
Sections of Ranil’s supporters were also shocked, as they truly believed that somehow Ranil had turned it around at the last minute, especially as support started to surge, particularly in Colombo. However, this enthusiasm was not felt outside of the city, where he is seen as a protector of the old regime. The propaganda claiming that he was the one who lifted the country out of its economic misery failed to gain traction, as no one actually bought the idea that the economy was out of danger.
The NPP
The NPP was formed in 2019 by the JVP (People’s Liberation Front) primarily to build electoral support. Although the JVP’s involvement in the teachers’ struggle in 2012 (Federation of University Teachers’ Associations – FUTA) brought them closer to some sections of the academic community, the NPP was not formed with the view of building a struggle. Even when the struggle started, neither the NPP nor the JVP played a key role; they remained passive supporters at best. The JVP even tried to call a counterproductive strike on the very same day that a large number of people began to gather in the capital to force out Rajapaksa. The JVP had, in the past, at times closely collaborated with the Rajapaksa government; while Anura himself had been a minister under President Kumaratunga in the joint SLFP–JVP cabinet between 2004 and 2005.
Despite this, they quickly distanced themselves from all the parties and presented themselves as being outside of the old elite and family politics. With a mix of populism and patriotism, they were able to draw the masses who had voted for the Rajapaksa family in the past but had now developed enormous anger, seeing the family as the most corrupt and as having betrayed them. Anura won 3.16% of the vote in the last presidential election, and the JVP secured 3 seats in parliament. Their main theme revolved around one key propaganda message: that they were against corruption. This aspect led them to partially fill the political vacuum, as the desire for a clean government dominated the rise in support for the NPP more than anything else. This was aided by the general propaganda in the mainstream media that framed the crisis in Sri Lanka as being all about corruption. No real discussion took place regarding what caused the crisis and how it could be fixed.
The narrative around establishing a clean government is, in some sense, connected with the mood that existed during the Aragalaya, where an anti-corruption sentiment dominated. The Aragalaya didn’t develop into a movement that articulated clear demands beyond anti-corruption. There was no clarity regarding the economic crisis or the way forward. Despite its many weaknesses, the Gall Face Declaration (GFD) was the best representation that the Aragalaya produced. However, this came much too late—at the very end of the Aragalaya movement—and was cut short very quickly. Many sections, including those who belatedly decided to form an organized approach by establishing a People’s Council, disowned the GFD. It was deemed too far to the left for some, despite its weaknesses in not challenging capitalism! The fractured movement also gave the NPP an opportunity to establish itself as the main proponent of an anti-corruption party and present itself as a trustworthy opponent of the elites. Given the Marxist and left rhetoric of the past and present—and considering that the NPP had not been fully tested in government before—they gained traction, particularly among the SLPP base. The regional bodies that the NPP/JVP established and the JVP’s trade unions, along with their cadre base, gave them an advantage.
The failure of the Aragalaya to come forward with clear organizational structures and far-sighted demands was a major factor in shifting the struggle toward the electoral plane. NPP propaganda from the start concentrated on electoral gains more than anything else. The so-called “leaders” propelled to prominence by the movement lacked the political or organizational understanding necessary to channel the movement toward establishing an independent organization. They made little effort to connect with other struggles or to trade unions. The working class within the Aragalaya played a crucial role in strengthening it through strikes, but they played a minimal role in leading it. This also aided those who do not base themselves on the working class to gain some prominence.
Despite the Marxist rhetoric and despite being in control of key unions, the JVP completely ignored the role of the working class. Instead, the main focus of the NPP from the start was aimed at attracting disillusioned petit bourgeois, liberals, and academics, mainly concentrated in Colombo city. The anger articulated by the Aragalaya shifted a significant part of the middle class away from the traditional parties, making the NPP their natural home.
For the impoverished masses determined to punish the establishment, the election result wasn’t shocking. A large section of workers, peasants, farmers, and the poor—mostly Sinhala-speaking—who voted for Anura were confident that he would win and expected him to deliver on rooting out corruption, reducing prices, and improving their economic conditions. This determination was felt across the South in particular. Defeat wasn’t an option for them. It is this mood, coupled with the “euphoria” and hopes that this election could force the change that failed to take place during the 2022 mass movement, which further strengthened Anura’s victory.
Can Mass Expectations Be Delivered?
The election period is not over, as the November 14 parliamentary election was called immediately after the presidential election, and further provincial elections may follow. Anura has already made several populist gestures to attract more votes in the coming election. The temporary reduction in the price of eggs, for example, has created enthusiasm across the country that the prices of essential commodities may come down. The confiscation of vehicles and some properties previously provided to ministers and MPs has also added to the expectation that anti-corruption measures will be implemented.
Some unions and workers who were involved in struggles in the recent past have now paused temporarily due to the election and are also waiting to see what the Anura government could deliver for them. However, many who have met with government officials have been told that there is no money, and that they will somehow try to fix the problem. Despite several details emerging regarding corruption related to the use of luxury vehicles and bar licenses, no one has been accused of a crime or punished so far. The NPP has given no indication that they will take serious action against any of the elite. Talks with the IMF resulted in Anura’s government agreeing to continue with the agreement made with the previous government. The IMF has given no indication that they will renegotiate all the so-called “reforms” that they had previously agreed upon. The implementation of these reforms will be a continuation of Ranil’s policy of austerity. Anura has given a positive signal to capitalists by appointing the chairman of the chamber of commerce as a special advisor to the president. Even the basic changes that were promised are far from being implemented. There is still a mood of “wait and see” among some with the expectation of radical changes from Anura.
The uprising mood expressed at the time of the Aragalaya continues to exist and is to some extent also reflected at the ballot box. However, the initial mass anger and discontent that existed against the establishment parties and their system have now shifted to demand further economic relief. Anura presidency so far made no effort to implement price control of essentials or bring to justice those who are known for corruption including that of Rajapaksa family. Instead concession to military and various signals and assurances are made for capitalist and their representatives. Riding on the popular wave, NPP could still manage to get majority in the parliament in the coming election. Continuation of capitalist measures by the NPP government, will create disappointment and discontent. Section of the activist and trade unions will be force to take action against the NPP government. How the government react will also determine their further.
Though JVP continue to organise as separate party to that of NPP, it had weakened politically as the electoralism had taken center stage. Conducting basic “five classes” for its members, and organising regional bodies are not enough to save JVP. Failure of deliver on the aspiration of workers and youth will result in actions being taken against the JVP government. Socialists and trade unionists should prepare for the class struggle that can emerge after the parliament election while arguing for the socialist policies which are needed to secure real, lasting change.
